India and East Asia in 2025: Charting a Course Through Alliances and Rivalries

As the world enters 2025, India’s foreign policy is poised to undergo significant shifts, particularly in its relations with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China. The events of 2024 have laid the groundwork for nuanced diplomacy, offering both challenges and opportunities for New Delhi. The question remains: can India improve its ties with China while maintaining its steadfast alliances with Japan and South Korea?

Strengthening Ties with Japan and South Korea: India’s relationships with Japan and South Korea are expected to remain robust in 2025, underpinned by shared democratic values, economic partnerships, and strategic cooperation. In 2024, these ties were bolstered through high-profile engagements, such as India’s active participation in the Quad alongside Japan, and bilateral defense agreements with South Korea focusing on advanced technology and maritime security.

Japan, in particular, has become a cornerstone of India’s Act East Policy. The collaborative efforts in infrastructure projects, such as the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train, and joint initiatives in green technology signal a deepening partnership. Similarly, South Korea’s investments in India’s manufacturing sector, particularly in electric vehicles and semiconductors, reflect the economic synergy between the two nations.

Taiwan: A Growing but Delicate Partnership: India’s engagement with Taiwan saw a quiet yet significant uptick in 2024, with increased economic and technological exchanges. The opening of Taiwan’s new representative office in Mumbai marked a milestone, signaling Taipei’s intent to deepen ties with New Delhi. Collaborative ventures in semiconductor manufacturing and technology transfers have emerged as key areas of cooperation. While India continues to adhere to its One-China policy, its growing ties with Taiwan underscore a pragmatic approach to diversifying its strategic partnerships.

China: A Potential Thaw in Relations? India’s relations with China have been fraught with tension in recent years, primarily due to border disputes and strategic competition. However, 2024 witnessed subtle signals of a potential thaw. Both nations engaged in several rounds of diplomatic and military talks aimed at de-escalating tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in 2024 also provided a platform for constructive dialogue.

Looking ahead to 2025, there is cautious optimism that India and China could improve relations. Economic pragmatism might drive this shift, as both nations recognize the mutual benefits of trade and investment. However, India is likely to remain vigilant about China’s regional ambitions and its growing influence in South Asia.

Balancing Act: Can India Reconcile Divergent Interests? India’s ability to maintain a delicate balance will be tested in 2025. While improving ties with China may offer economic advantages and reduce regional tensions, it could raise concerns among India’s trusted allies, Japan and South Korea. Both nations view China as a strategic rival and may closely monitor India’s diplomatic overtures towards Beijing.

To navigate this complex landscape, India is expected to prioritize issue-based alignments. For instance, it may collaborate with China on global issues like climate change and trade while fortifying security partnerships with Japan and South Korea. This approach would allow India to assert its strategic autonomy without compromising its core alliances.

Geopolitical Implications for 2025

As Asia’s geopolitical dynamics evolve, India’s foreign policy in 2025 will play a pivotal role in shaping regional stability. The year may witness:

• Enhanced trilateral cooperation between India, Japan, and South Korea in technology, defense, and infrastructure development.
• Strengthened economic ties with Taiwan, particularly in the high-tech and semiconductor sectors.
• Incremental progress in India-China relations, driven by pragmatic considerations, though tempered by lingering mistrust.

Ultimately, India’s success in navigating its relationships with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China will depend on its ability to harmonize its strategic interests with the aspirations of its regional partners. As 2025 unfolds, India’s role as a stabilizing force in Asia will be closely watched by the global community.